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ADP Employment: In-line With Expectations Despite Hurricanes

October 4, 2017

Bottom Line: Private sector employment growth decelerated in September, in-line with consensus estimates. While ADP's national employment figure still suggested gains of 135k jobs, small businesses were most adversely affected by the hurricanes, shedding 7k jobs. Looking through the volatility, the trend remains moderate in labor markets with ADP's 6-month average payroll growth at 189k, just below the 2016 average of 206k and the 5-year average of 204k.

ADP National Employment ROSE by 135k in September, in-line with market expectations for a gains of 135k. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months subtracted an additional 12k from the previous estimate. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 200k per month, lifting employment to 2.0% ABOVE its year ago level.

Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries ROSE by 48k jobs and Manufacturing gained 18k workers. Moreover, Construction gained 29k jobs. Meanwhile, Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 88k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 51k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities subtracting -18k, and Financial Activities increasing by 4k workers.

Small Firms fired 7k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 63k employees while Large Firms added 79k positions.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors