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GDP: Q2 Final Reading Just a Touch Higher

September 28, 2017

Bottom Line: Economic activity was stronger in 2017 Q2-17 from previous reports. With the exception of net exports, all of the final sales categories were revised lower. Economic activity is now a modest 2.2% above its year ago level and 13.6% above its previous peak level in 2007 Q4. 2017 Q3 ends this weekend, though, so this is old data. So far the Bloomberg consensus for 3Q GDP is 2.6%. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is at 2.14%, while the New York Fed's Nowcast is way down at 1.56%.

GDP was REVISED HIGHER by 0.1 percentage points to 3.1% in this third estimate for 2017 2nd Quarter. This compared with market expectations for no change revision to 3.0%. Economic activity is now 2.2% above its year ago level.
In final sales categories, government purchases were revised higher while , residential investment, fixed investment, net exports and consumption were revised lower.

As a result of all of these changes, real final sales was revised down by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9% while real domestic demand was revised down by 0.1 percentage points to 2.7%.

The GDP Price Index was REVISED UP by 0.1 points to 1.0%, compared with market expectations of 1.0%. Economy-wide prices are now 1.6% ABOVE year ago levels.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors