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ADP Employment: Below Expectations But Positive Revisions

August 2, 2017
Bottom Line: While ADP data showed modestly slower than expected payroll growth in July, there were positive revisions to prior data that mostly offset the miss. Overall, the pace of job gains remains reasonably strong. ADP data do not account for government workers which are included in the Employment Situation headline number. This report would still suggest non-farm payroll growth close to the 180k consensus is likely Friday.

ADP National Employment ROSE by 178k in July, compared with market expectations for a gains of 190k. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months added an additional 37k to the previous estimate. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 197k per month, lifting employment to 1.9% ABOVE its year ago level.

Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries ROSE by 4k jobs but Manufacturing lost 4k workers. Moreover, Construction gained 6k jobs.

Meanwhile, Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 174k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 65k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 24k, and Financial Activities increasing by 13k workers.

Small Firms hired 50k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 83k employees while Large Firms added 45k positions.