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Jobless Claims: Another Decline

July 20, 2017

Bottom Line: While seasonal adjustments were large in the week ended July 15th, there was a sharp decline in total claims on both a seasonally adjusted and un-adjusted basis during the survey week for the upcoming July payroll report. The 4-week average is back near the 13-week average, suggesting the labor market remains strong with a historically low level of claim activity.

Jobless Claims FELL by 15k during the week ended July 15th, 233k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 245k.The 4-week average ROSE by 2.3k to 246k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.8k to 243k.
Continuing Claims ROSE by 28k during the week ended July 8th to 1,977k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 1,956k to 1,949k.The 4-week average ROSE by 9k to 1,959k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 31k to 1,838k during the week ended July 1st.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.4% during the week ended July 8th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors