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Jobless Claims: Holiday Volatility?

July 13, 2017

Bottom Line: While the headline numbers have barely budged, there was substantial volatility among several large states' jobless claims reports in the week that included the Independence Day holiday. We'd expect that to come out of figures over the coming weeks , creating a bit more volatility in the headline. For now the 4-week is slightly above the 13-week average with both sloping modestly higher . While normally that might signal a negative shift in trend for labor markets, the summer seasonals, which usually include auto plant shutdowns for retooling, make jumping to such a conclusion difficult.

Jobless Claims FELL by 3k during the week ended July 8th, 247k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 245k.The 4-week average ROSE by 2.3k to 246k and the 13 week average ROSE by 1.0k to 243k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 20k during the week ended July 1st to 1,945k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,956k to 1,965k.The 4-week average ROSE by 2k to 1,949k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 31k to 1,838k during the week ended June 24th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.4% during the week ended July 1st. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors