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Jobless Claims: Steadily Declining 13-week average

March 16, 2017

Bottom Line: As we move past the usual long weekend holidays in January and February, a look at the 13-week average reveals a steadily declining trend. And with the 4-week average still below the 13-week average, there is little reason to suggest anything but more record lows in the coming months, even amid some weather-related volatility that is likely to show up in next week's report.

Jobless Claims FELL by 2k during the week ended March 11st, 241k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 240k.The 4-week average ROSE by 0.8k to 237k and the 13 week average FELL by 1.0k to 246k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 30k during the week ended March 4th to 2,030k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 2,060k to 2,060k.The 4-week average FELL by 12k to 2,054k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 99k to 2,349k during the week ended February 25th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.5% during the week ended March 4th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors