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Jobless Claims: Back Near Lows

January 19, 2017
Bottom Line: Initial claims fell back towards the lows of the last two months as over 65k fewer claims were counted (on a non-seasonally adjusted basis) with seasonal adjustments adding nearly 50k jobs to the headline report for the week ending January 14, the survey week for the upcoming non-farm payroll report. While there will still be some seasonal volatility in the coming weeks, labor markets are still improving on a trend basis - the 4-week average, for instance, is at 247k, below the 13-week average that is now 254k.

Jobless Claims FELL by 15k during the week ended January 14th, 234k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 252k. The prior week was revised slightly higher from 247k to 249k.The 4-week average FELL by 10.3k to 247k and the 13 week average FELL by 2.1k to 254k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 47k during the week ended January 7th to 2,046k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 2,087k to 2,093k.The 4-week average ROSE by 2k to 2,090k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 34k to 2,502k during the week ended December 31st.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.5% during the week ended January 7th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.