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ADP Employment: Modest Declines

January 5, 2017

Bottom Line: ADP reported fewer private sector job gains than expected for December as goods producing industries shed jobs at the fastest rate in four months. ADP data do not account for government workers which are included in the Employment Situation headline number. This report would suggest modest downside risk to the 180k consensus for non-farm payroll growth to be reported tomorrow. The private sector generated an average of 174k jobs per month in 2016, down from 209k per month in 2015. Goods producing sectors shed 4k jobs on average per month in 2016 versus growth of 9k jobs per month in 2015. Service producing industries added an average of 179k jobs per month in 2016 versus 200k in 2015.

ADP National Employment ROSE by 153k in December, compared with market expectations for a gains of 175k. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months added an additional 4k to the previous estimate. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 174k per month, lifting employment to 1.7% ABOVE its year ago level.

Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries FELL by 16k jobs but Manufacturing lost 9k workers. Moreover, Construction lost 2k jobs. Meanwhile, Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 169k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 24k workers,

Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 82k, and Financial Activities increasing by 10k workers.

Small Firms hired 18k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 71k employees while Large Firms added 63k positions.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors