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Case-Shiller Home Prices: Holding 5+% YoY Gains

December 27, 2016

Bottom Line: 19 of 20 major markets saw price gains in Ocotber, pushing the national average up 0.6% on the month and 5.1% year-on-year. This is the 4th consecutive month of price gains. The Pacific Northwest remains the strongest with Seattle up 12% yoy and Portland still up 10.8% on the year, despite being the only market to decline (just slightly) in October. Florida markets remain strong with Miami up 7.4% and Tampa up 8.8% from year ago levels. Dallas and Denver round out the top performers each up over 9% year-on-year, while laggards remain New York (2%) and Washington DC (3.6%). Overall trend price appreciation has firmly settled into a 5% pace over the last two years.

Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 0.6% (seasonally adjusted) in October to 190.5, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.5%.

Home prices are 5.1% ABOVE their year ago level. Nationwide home prices are still 7.9% BELOW their April 2006 peak, near April2005 levels and 39.2% ABOVE their January 2012 trough. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 0.1% on the month.

Housing prices rose in 19 of the 20 metro areas in October (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis. New York had the smallest year-over-year increase at 2.0% while Seattle had the largest year-over-year increase at 12.0%.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors