Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound After Nearing Lows
September 29, 2016
Bottom Line: Initial claims rose modestly but are holding near their lowest level since mid-July. The 4-week average is at 256k, below the 13-week average that is now 259k, indicating the labor market trends are still improving slightly. The Department of Labor noted that "This marks 82 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970."
Jobless Claims ROSE by 3k during the week ended September 24th to 254k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 265k. The prior week was revised slightly lower from 263k to 251k. The 4-week average FELL by 2k to 256k and the 13 week average FELL by 1k to 259k.
Initial claims have been on a declining trend over the past 6 years but the pace of decline has now slowed. Continuing Claims FELL by 46k during the week ended September 17th to 2,062k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 2,159k to 2,108k. The 4-week average FELL by 24k to 2,115k. Continuing claims have also been on a declining trend for more than 6 years.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 82k to 1,754k during the week ended September 10th.
The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.5% during the week ended September 17th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors