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Jobless Claims: New Claims Increase Moderately

July 28, 2016
Bottom Line: Initial claims climbed moderately and are at their highest level in 4 weeks. The 4-week average is at 257k, still below the 13-week average that is now 267k, indicating that despite this week’s increase, the labor market trends are still improving modestly.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 14k during the week ended July 23rd to 266k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 262k. The prior week was revised slightly lower from 253k to 252k. The 4-week average FELL by 1k to 257k while the 13 week average ROSE by 1k to 267k. Initial claims have been on a declining trend over the past 6 years but the pace of decline has now slowed.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 7k during the week ended July 16th to 2,139k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 2,128k to 2,132k. The 4-week average FELL by 7k to 2,135k. Despite this week's increase, continuing claims have also been on a declining trend for more than 6 years.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 23k to 2,137k during the week ended July 9th. Continuing claims have been declining amid modest volatility for the past six years.

The Insured Jobless Rate ROSE by 0.1% to 1.6% during the week ended July 16th.The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by contingentmacro