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MBA Survey: Slight decline heading into US holiday

June 29, 2016

Bottom Line: Mortgage activity fell modestly in the latest week. The 30-year mortgage rate was below 4% for the 17th consecutive week. Home buying declined modestly while refinancing activity declined for the 5th time in the last 13 weeks. On a trend basis mortgage applications are are still improving especially when looking at 13-week averages for this volatile series.

The MBA Mortgage Applications Index FELL by 2.6% during the week ended June 24 to 508.4, slightly above its 13 week average of 501.6 and 38.7% ABOVE its year ago level. On a longer term basis, mortgage applications rose from early 2011 until May 2013 when the trend topped out and retreated until December 2014, turned sharply higher in early 2015 and after some volatility has been trending higher.

The Purchase Index FELL by 3.0% to 224.9, modestly below its 13 week average of 233.7 but 12.9% ABOVE its year ago level. The level of purchase activity had stayed quite low, amid modest volatility but has started to turn moderately higher since 2015.

The Refinance Index FELL by 2.4% to 2,136. Despite this decline, refinancing activity is modestly above its 13 week average of 2,044 and 63.4% ABOVE its year ago level.

Contract Mortgage Rates FELL with the 30-year fixed rate dipping by 1 bp to 3.75% and with the 15-year fixed rate dipping by 2 bps to 3.02%.

Article by contingentmacro