Jobless Claims: New Claims Increase Moderately

May 5, 2016
Bottom Line: Initial claims climbed moderately and are at their highest level in the past 5 weeks. The 4-week average is at 258k, below the 13-week average that is now 261k, indicating the labor market trends are still improving slightly despite this week’s increase. The continuing claims fell slightly and remained on their 6-year long declining trend. Jobless Claims ROSE by 17k during the week ended April 30th to 274k, the highest level since end of March, compared with market expectations for an increase to 260k. The 4-week average ROSE by 2k to 258k and the 13 week average FELL by 1k to 261k. Initial claims have been on a declining trend over the past 6 years but the pace of decline has now slowed. Continuing Claims FELL by 8k during the week ended April 23rd to 2,121k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 2,130k to 2,129k. The 4-week average FELL by 17k to 2,140k. Continuing claims have been on a declining trend for more than 6 years. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 63k to 2,091k during the week ended April 16th. Continuing claims have been declining amid modest volatility for the past six years. The Insured Jobless Rate FELL to 1.5% during the week ended April 23rd. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by contingentmacro