Jobless Claims: Decline Modestly

December 17, 2015
Jobless Claims FELL by 11k during the week ended December 12nd to 271k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 270k. The 4-week average was UNCHANGED at 271k and the 13 week average ROSE by 1k to 268k. Initial claims have been on a declining trend over the past 6 years but the pace of decline has now slowed. Continuing Claims FELL by 7k during the week ended December 5th to 2,238k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 2,161k to 2,245k. The 4-week average ROSE by 16k to 2,200k. Continuing claims have also been on a declining trend for more than 5 years. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 98k to 2,202k during the week ended November 28th. Continuing claims have been declining amid modest volatility for the past six years. The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.7% during the week ended December 5th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance. Bottom Line: Initial claims declined modestly. The 4-week average is at 271k, slightly above the 13-week average that is now 268k, indicating labor market trends are little changed. The continuing claims fell slightly and remained on their 6-year long declining trend. These data are for the survey week for payroll employment. And the 4-week average is same as it was during the November survey week, but is modestly higher than in October, suggesting moderate hiring (and a pace of payroll growth similar to November).
Article by contingentmacro