Consumer Confidence: Increases Modestly

March 29, 2016
Bottom Line: Consumers' assessments of the economy improved in March, more than market expectations. Confidence, at 96.2, is slightly above its three month average of 96.0. Consumers' assessments of current situations decreased while headline expectations rose but have been rather volatile month-to-month. Additionally, details were mixed as 6-month outlooks for business and employment rose modestly, while outlooks for income fell modestly. Consumer Confidence ROSE by 2.2 points in March to 96.2, compared with market expectations for an increase to 94.0. Confidence has been rising since Feb 2009 amid modest volatility. Present Situation Index FELL by 1.5 points to 113.5. This is still 3.6% ABOVE its year ago level. Present situation has been climbing for the past three years amid slight volatility. The Expectations Index ROSE by 4.8 points to 84.7. This is still 11.8% BELOW its year ago level. Expectations have been declining for the past year amid substantial volatility. The labor differential, the percentage of respondents who said jobs are “hard to get” from the percentage who said jobs are “plentiful”, moved higher by 0.4 points to -1.2.
Article by contingentmacro