Jobless Claims: Claims Jump to 742k
November 19, 2020
Bottom Line: Jobless claims jumped last week, led by what appears to be an anomalous increase in Louisiana. We noted last week that our forecast from our Nowcasting model suggested claims could rebound modestly, and indeed that proved true and the opposite of the consensus forecasts that had suggested a further decline to 700k. This week's model, to be reported next Thursday, suggests claims will likely hold around these levels. Overall, claims are still heading in the right direction but proving stubborn around the current levels, and bear watching for signs that labor market improvement may be stalling. Jobless Claims ROSE by 31k during the week ended November 14th to 742k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 700k. The 4-week average FELL by 13.8k to 742k and the 13-week average FELL by 27.8k to 827k. Continuing Claims FELL by 429k during the week ended November 7th to 6,372k, after the prior week was revised moderately lower from 13,385k to 6,801k. The 4-week average FELL by 525k to 7,055k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 420k to 6,081k during the week ended October 31st. The Insured Jobless Rate FELL by 0.3% to 4.3% during the week ended November 7th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors