Jobless Claims: Another 5+ Million, 22+ Million in 4 Weeks
April 16, 2020
Bottom Line: Over 5 million people filed for unemployment insurance, a decline from the 6.6million who filed in the previous week, Over the last four weeks, more than 22 million people filed for unemployment benefits. Claims were lower in most states but rose in Florida, where shutdowns started more recently. Claims were also higher in New York, a possible sign that a later wave of layoffs could come as the shutdowns last longer. This bears watching going forward. Our nowcasting model that includes inputs from Google Trends suggests claims peaked in the week ending March 28th but suggest a modest acceleration through Monday. Jobless Claims FELL by 1370k during the week ended April 11st to 5245k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 5500k.The 4-week average ROSE by 1240.8k to 5509k and the 13 week average ROSE by 387.5k to 1847k. Continuing Claims ROSE by 4530k during the week ended April 4th to 11,976k, after the prior week was revised moderately higher from 1,726k to 7,446k.The 4-week average ROSE by 2569k to 6,066k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 4358k to 12,527k during the week ended March 28th. The Insured Jobless Rate ROSE by 3.1% to 8.2% during the week ended April 4th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors